By Larry Nagengast
With the Democratic Speaker of the House ousted in the September 11 primary and the Republican minority leader winning his party’s nomination for governor, new leadership in the state House of Representatives will emerge after the November 5 general election.
Although both parties will be choosing new leaders in the House, it’s possible that 35 of 41 representatives will return, and that the Democrats’ current 26-15 advantage will barely change.
The primary results also signal a likely change in the membership of the state Senate, thanks to victories by two Democratic incumbents seeking higher office: Sen. Sarah McBride of Wilmington winning the nomination for the U.S. House of Representatives seat now held by Lisa Blunt Rochester, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Tom Carper, and Sen. Kyle Evans Gay winning the nomination for lieutenant governor.
Should McBride and Gay win their battles in the general election, state law requires that special elections be held in December to fill their Senate seats.
The Senate, however, will look much the same next year because only 10 of 21 seats are in play during this year’s election cycle and incumbents face no opposition in eight of those districts. There is a traditional Republican-Democrat battle in only one of the two others. And, if McBride and Gay leave the Senate, Democrats hold strong registration edges in both districts, so the faces would change but the political balance might not.
Here’s a look at how the legislative races are shaping up as we approach the November 5 general election.
State Senate
The 2024 election cycle will have minimal impact on the composition of the state Senate, where Democrats now hold a 15-6 majority.
Eleven seats – eight held by Democrats and three by Republicans – are not up for election this year.
Of the remaining 10, eight incumbents – five Democrats and three Republicans — are unopposed.
That means Democrats are assured of holding 13 seats and Republicans six, with only two contested races on November 5.
The only Senate race with a traditional Democrat-Republican battle is in the 6th district, centered on Route 1 and running from the Prime Hook Wildlife Area south to Dewey Beach. Incumbent Russell Huxtable is being challenged by Republican Kim Hoey Stevenson. According to September data from the state Department of Elections, 40 percent of the district’s 47,762 registered voters are Democrats, and 33 percent are Republicans.
The other contested race is a likely Democratic win. Incumbent Darius J. Brown is facing Conservative Party candidate Jon Roe in the heavily Democratic 2nd district, which includes Wilmington’s East Side and suburbs along the Delaware River between the city and New Castle.
Unopposed incumbents are: Democrats S. Elizabeth Lockman (3rd district), Laura V. Sturgeon (5th), Stephanie L. Hansen (10th), Bryan Townsend (11th) and Trey Paradee (17th), and Republicans Eric L. Buckson (16th), Bryant L. Richardson (21st) and David Wilson, a primary victor over Robert Reed in the 18th district.
Should McBride and Gay win their races for the U.S. House and lieutenant governor, respectively, special elections would be held to choose their successors. According to state law, Gov. John Carney would have 10 days from the day results are certified (November 7 this year) to set an election date 30 to 35 days afterward. This means that special elections, if needed, would be held between December 7 and December 22.
Registration statistics suggest that it would be difficult for Republicans to flip either district. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3-1 ratio in the 1st district and by 2-1 in the 5th, with about one-quarter of the voters in each district unaffiliated or registered with minor parties.
State House of Representatives
Democrats currently hold a 26-15 edge over Republicans, with all 41 House seats up for election this year.
With the primary outcomes decided, it’s all over but the counting in 17 districts, with nine Democratic and eight Republican incumbents running unopposed in November. The distribution of the incumbents punching a return ticket to Legislative Hall reflects the areas of their party’s dominance: seven of the nine Democrats represent New Castle County and five of the eight Republicans represent Sussex.
Another 18 seats held by incumbents – 12 Democrats and six Republicans – will be the subject of two-way races.
New representation is guaranteed in the six remaining districts, as one incumbent was ousted in the primary, three stepped down, and two sought nominations for higher office, one of them successfully.
The most noteworthy change came in the 15th district, the area south of Bear and west of Delaware City, where Democrat Kamela Smith defeated House Speaker Longhurst, who was seeking her 11th two-year term. Longhurst’s loss ensures that there will be a new speaker in January. Democrats will continue to hold the seat because Smith faces no Republican opposition.
Of those seeking higher office, the success belongs to Republican Ramone, the House minority leader, who captured his party’s nomination for governor. Ramone’s win means that Republicans will have a new leader in the House next year and sets up what could be a close race to succeed him in the 21st district in the Pike Creek area of New Castle County. Frank Burns narrowly defeated Michael F. Smith in the Democratic primary and will face Republican Brenda Mennella in November. Ramone won eight consecutive elections to the House, but the district now skews Democratic – 43 percent to 26, so unaffiliated voters could be the deciding factor.
State Rep. Sherry Dorsey Walker, from Wilmington’s 3rd district, failed in her bid for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, but the party will hold her seat as Josue O. Ortega is unopposed in November.
Three Democratic lawmakers decided not to seek re-election this year: Pete Schwartzkopf, the longtime speaker of the house, from the 14th district in coastal Sussex; Paul Baumbach, from the Newark-area 23rd district, and Sean Matthews from the 10th district in Brandywine Hundred.
Democrat Mara Gorman, running unopposed, will succeed Baumbach. Matthews’ successor will be Republican Brent Burdge or Democrat Melanie Ross Levin, who defeated Stephen Jankovic and former Rep. Dennis E. Williams in a three-way primary. Democrats hold a comfortable 44-28 percent registration edge in the district.
In the battle to succeed Schwartzkopf, Republican Mike Simpler will face Claire Snyder-Hall, former leader of Common Cause Delaware, who defeated Kathleen McGuiness and Marty Rendon in the Democratic primary. Democrats hold a 43-31 percent registration edge in the district.
Incumbent Democrats (listed first here) are being challenged in these New Castle County districts:
Two Democratic incumbents in Kent County face challenges from Republicans: William Bush, who defeated Monica Shockley Porter in the primary, will face Republican Anthony Egipciaco in the 29th district, and Kerri Evelyn Harris faces a challenge from Amy Spampinato in the 32nd district. In Sussex County’s 20th district, Stell Parker Selby defeated Brian P. Jenkins and now faces Republican Nikki Miller in the general election.
Republican incumbents (listed first here) are being challenged in six districts.
In New Castle County, Kevin S. Hensley faces Terrell A. Williams in the 9th district and Michael F. Smith faces Monica Beard in the 22nd district. In Kent County, Lyndon D. Yearick will take on Tracey M. Miller, the winner over Ade Adewunmi Kuforiji in the 34th district primary.
In Sussex County, three Republicans have drawn opponents. In the 4th district, Jeff Hilovsky is being challenged by Gregg Lindner. In the 36th district, Bryan Shupe, a primary winner over Patrick Smith, faces Democrat Rony J. Baltazar-Lopez. In the 41st district, Rich Collins is opposed by Tom Brett.
The nine incumbent Democrats with no opposition in November include seven from New Castle County. They are, by district: Nnamdi Chukwuocha (1st), Stephanie Bolden (2nd), Kendra Johnson (5th), Franklin D. Cooke Jr. (16th), Melissa Minor-Brown (17th), Sophie Phillips (18th) and Madinah Wilson-Anton (26th). Also unopposed are William Carson in the 28th district, which covers parts of New Castle and Kent counties, and Sean M. Lynn in Kent County’s 31st district.
Five of the eight incumbent Republicans with no opposition represent districts in Sussex County. They are: Jesse R. Vanderwende (35th), Valerie Jones Giltner (37th), Ronald E. Gray (38th), Daniel B. Short (39th) and Timothy D. Dukes (40th). Two others have districts in Kent County: William Shannon Morris (30th) and Charles S. Postles Jr. (33rd). The ninth unopposed Republican incumbent is Jeffrey N. Spiegelman, whose 11th district includes portions of Kent and New Castle counties.
Heading into Election Day, there are 20 uncontested races, so Democrats are assured of 12 seats and Republicans eight. The incumbent’s party holds a registration edge in most of 21 contested districts, reducing the odds of any significant change from the current 26-15 Democratic majority.
The Delaware Journalism Collaborative is a project of the Local Journalism Initiative.
